Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada
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Published:2021-03-29
Issue:3
Volume:15
Page:1567-1586
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ISSN:1994-0424
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Container-title:The Cryosphere
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language:en
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Short-container-title:The Cryosphere
Author:
Haegeli PascalORCID, Shandro Bret, Mair Patrick
Abstract
Abstract. Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations
including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA),
and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are known to substantially affect winter
weather patterns in western Canada. Several studies have examined the effect
of these oscillations on avalanche hazard using long-term avalanche activity
records from highway avalanche safety programmes. We present a new approach
for gaining additional insight into these relationships that uses avalanche
problem information published in public avalanche bulletins during the
winters of 2010 to 2019. For each avalanche problem type, we calculate
seasonal prevalence values for each forecast area, elevation band, and
season, which are then included in a series of beta mixed-effects regression
models to explore both the overall and regional effects of the
Pacific-centered oscillations (POs; including ENSO, PDO, and PNA) and AO on the
nature of avalanche hazard in the study area. We find significant negative
effects of PO on the prevalence of storm slab avalanche problems, wind slab avalanche problems, and dry loose avalanche problems, which agree reasonably well
with the known impacts of PO on winter weather in western Canada. The
analysis also reveals a positive relationship between AO and the prevalence
of deep persistent slab avalanche problems, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. In addition, we find several
smaller-scale patterns that highlight that the avalanche hazard response to
these oscillations varies regionally. Even though our study period is short,
our study shows that the forecaster judgement included in avalanche problem
assessments can add considerable value for these types of analyses. Since
the predictability of the most important atmosphere–ocean oscillations is
continuously improving, a better understanding of their effect on avalanche
hazard can contribute to the development of informative seasonal avalanche
forecasts in a relatively simple way.
Funder
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Earth-Surface Processes,Water Science and Technology
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