Diagnostics Mechanism of Low-Intensity Railway Lines on the Basis of Fuzzy Cognitive Modeling

Abstract

For to identify functioning problem of railway lines various mechanisms are used, including the mechanism of low-intensity railway line exploitation diagnostics which allows to raise their functioning efficiency. The proposed mechanism allows to evaluate low-intensity railway line current state and to establish cause-and-effect relationships leading to line unprofitability, to give analysis of indicators which to the greatest extent influence negatively the line functioning. Cognitive modeling method is used for this purpose. The article develops enlarged cognitive map of low-intensity railway line functioning that’s used for the diagnostics of line exploitation existing state. Cognitive map consists of concepts, links between concepts and links’ weight values. On cognitive map basis, adjacency matrix is made up which allows to evaluate reliability and sustainability of fuzzy cognitive map according to internal and external disturbances. Characteristic equation and matrix eigenvalues are calculated which allow to give the assessment of cognitive map indicators in the form of the influence of concepts on system and of system on concepts. Fuzzy cognitive map indicators are established, namely, system influence consonance, system influence dissonance, concept influence on system which give the most complete representation of low-intensity line internal structure. “Technical resources”, “stations’ and section’s staff”, “normative base” among concepts touch on the largest positive impact on system. The most significant positive influence on the listed concepts will allow to rise operation efficiency of low-intensity railway lines. “Traffic volume” concept among concepts causes the most negative influence on the system because of the lack of quantity of train pairs, passing along the line, a day. The plan of experiments for to define the changes in the parameters of “Productivity and effectiveness” concepts, when exerting impulse influences on “Operational management”, “Technical resources” and “Stations’ and section’s staff” concepts with the purpose of the evaluation of their influence on “Productivity” and “Efficiency” concepts, is made up. When introducing impulses into “Staff” concept, productivity and efficiency growth is observed that testifies to the possibility of efficiency rise of low-intensity railway line functioning by the way of positive impulse on “Staff” concept.