COVID-19 Case Fatality Ratio of Latino America Countries with Temperate Climate Partially Follows European and Oceania Trends According to Seasonal Change

Abstract

The objective of our study is, therefore, to verify whether the trend of the pandemic regarding the lethality of the virus is similar in Argentina and Chile to that which emerged in the temperate countries of Europe and Oceania. The CFRs were derived from the John Hopkins University database. To check the trend of the Case Fatality Ratio and Argentina, Chile we calculated this index on the same dates in which it was calculated for comparison in European countries and in Australia and New Zealand: i.e., May 6th and from May 6th to the September 21st. We continued comparing the other countries of the southern hemisphere, recalculating the CFR as of 11th November. For comparing a period of year homogeneous, late spring, we calculate the change if CFR from 20th March to 15th April in the North Hemisphere. Our study's results seem to confirm in Latin America a possible influence of the climate and the changing of the seasons in the lethality of the virus. For the same exceptions, it is evident that the study shows that this factor is not the only one nor probably the most important. The obvious exception concerns Argentina, which does not show any summer improvement of the CFR, unfortunately; for this, nation-specific data are not available to verify if the trend is homogeneous in the different climates that the vast territory presents. Other very important factors come into play, among which the diffusivity of the virus also seems to play a role.