A Soil Moisture and Vegetation-Based Susceptibility Mapping Approach to Wildfire Events in Greece

Abstract

Wildfires in Mediterranean areas are becoming more frequent, and the fire season is extending toward the spring and autumn months. These alarming findings indicate an urgent need to develop fire susceptibility methods capable of identifying areas vulnerable to wildfires. The present work aims to uncover possible soil moisture and vegetation condition precursory signals of the largest and most devastating wildfires in Greece that occurred in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Therefore, the time series of two remotely sensed datasets–MAP L4 Soil Moisture (SM) and Landsat 8 NDVI, which represent vegetation and soil moisture conditions—were examined before five destructive wildfires in Greece during the study period. The results of the analysis highlighted specific properties indicative of fire-susceptible areas. NDVI in all fire-affected areas ranged from 0.13 to 0.35, while mean monthly soil moisture showed negative anomalies in the spring periods preceding fires. Accordingly, fire susceptibility maps were developed, verifying the usefulness of remotely sensed information related to soil moisture and NDVI. This information should be used to enhance fire models and identify areas at risk of wildfires in the near future.