Significance of Multi-Variable Model Calibration in Hydrological Simulations within Data-Scarce River Basins: A Case Study in the Dry-Zone of Sri Lanka

Abstract

Traditional hydrological model calibration using limitedly available streamflow data often becomes inadequate, particularly in dry climates, as the flow regimes may abruptly vary from arid conditions to devastating floods. Newly available remote-sensing-based datasets can be supplemented to overcome such inadequacies in hydrological simulations. To address this shortcoming, we use multi-variable-based calibration by setting up and calibrating a lumped-hydrological model using observed streamflow and remote-sensing-based soil moisture data from Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4. The proposed method was piloted at the Maduru Oya River Basin, Sri Lanka, as a proof of concept. The relative contributions from streamflow and soil moisture were assessed and optimised via the Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE). The Generalized Reduced Gradient non-linear solver function was used to optimise the Tank Model parameters. The findings revealed satisfactory performance in streamflow simulations under single-variable model validation (KGE of 0.85). Model performances were enhanced by incorporating soil moisture data (KGE of 0.89), highlighting the capability of the proposed multi-variable calibration technique for improving the overall model performance. Further, the findings of this study highlighted the instrumental role of remote sensing data in representing the soil moisture dynamics of the study area and the importance of using multi-variable calibration to ensure robust hydrological simulations of river basins in dry climates.