Modeling the Impact and Risk Assessment of Urbanization on Urban Heat Island and Thermal Comfort Level of Beijing City, China (2005–2020)

Abstract

Rapid urbanization poses a threat to various ecosystem services. Beijing has undergone extensive infrastructure development in recent years. The study aims to extract land surface temperature (LST) and land use cover (LUC) data from satellite imagery, identify urban heat island (UHI) areas in Beijing, and determine the correlation between LST, LUC, NDVI, and BUI. It will also investigate the relationship between UHI and built/unbuilt areas, evaluate thermal comfort in Beijing using UTFVI, and assess the ecological quality of different land use types using the Ecological Evaluation Index (EEI). The results can inform urban planning and management in rapidly urbanizing and climate-changing regions. Changes in LUC and other activities affect the distribution of LST. For the study years (2005–2020), the estimated mean LST in Beijing was 24.72 °C, 27.07 °C, 26.22 °C, and 27.03 °C, respectively. A significant positive correlation (r = 0.96 p > 0.005) was found between LST and urban areas with other infrastructures. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) outperformed with Adj R2 > 0.74, suggesting that the extent of an urban heat island (UHI) is strongly dependent on the settlements, LUC composition, size, and terrain of surrounding communities. Urban hotspots in the city were identified and validated using Google Earth imagery. The Ecological Evaluation Index (EEI) value was relatively low compared to other ecosystem-related units. EEI showed a continuous increase of six percent in the most negative categories, indicating an unstable environment. This study concludes that urbanization affects the city’s environment, and study findings would help to regulate the urban ecosystem in Beijing.