Runoff forecasting model based on CEEMD and combination model: a case study in the Manasi River, China

Abstract

Abstract Accurate forecasting of runoff is necessary for water resources management. However, the runoff time series consists of complex nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics, which makes forecasting difficult. To contribute towards improved forecasting accuracy, a novel combination model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) for runoff forecasting is proposed and applied in this paper. Firstly, the original runoff series is decomposed into a limited number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual based on CEEMD, which makes the runoff time series stationary. Then, approximate entropy is introduced to judge the complexity of each IMF and residual. According to the calculation results of approximate entropy, the high complexity components are predicted by Gaussian process regression (GPR), the medium complexity components are predicted by support vector machine (SVM), and the low complexity components are predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). The advantages of each forecasting model are used to forecast the appropriate components. In order to solve the problem that the forecasting performance of GPR and SVM is affected by their parameters, an improved fireworks algorithm (IFWA) is proposed to optimize the parameters of two models. Finally, the final forecasting result is obtained by adding the forecasted values of each component. The runoff data collected from the Manasi River, China is chosen as the research object. Compared with some state-of-the-art forecasting models, the comparison result curve between the forecasted value and actual value of runoff, the forecasting error, the histogram of the forecasting error distribution, the performance indicators and related statistical indicators show that the developed forecasting model has higher prediction accuracy and is able to reflect the change laws of runoff correctly.