Assessment of Discretionary Lane-Changing Decisions using a Random Parameters Approach with Heterogeneity in Means and Variances

Abstract

Lane-changing maneuvers on highways may cause capacity drops, create shock waves, and potentially increase collision risks. Properly managing lane-changing behavior to reduce these adverse impacts requires an understanding of their determinants. This paper investigates the determinants of lane changing in congested traffic using a next generation simulation dataset. A random parameters binary logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances was estimated to account for unobserved heterogeneity in lane-changing behavior across vehicles. Estimation results show that average headway, the original lane of the vehicle, driver acceleration/deceleration behavior, and vehicle size all significantly influence lane-changing probabilities. It was further found that the effect of vehicle size varied significantly across observations, that the mean of this variation decreased with increasing average headway, and the variance increased with increasing driver acceleration/deceleration. These empirical findings provide interesting new evidence on the determinants of lane changing, which can be used in traffic flow models to better replicate and predict traffic flow.