COVID-19 trends across borders: Identifying correlations among countries

Abstract

Objectives To enhance the accuracy of forecasting future coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and trends by identifying and analyzing correlations between the daily case counts of different countries reported between January 2020 and January 2023, to uncover significant links in COVID-19 patterns between nations, allowing for real-time, precise predictions of disease spread based on observed trends in correlated countries. Methods Daily COVID-19 cases for each country were tracked between January 2020 and January 2023 to identify correlations between nations. Current case data were obtained from reliable sources, such as Johns Hopkins University and the World Health Organization. Data were analyzed in Microsoft Excel using Pearson’s correlation coefficient to assess the strength of connections. Results Strong correlations (r > 0.80) were revealed between the daily reported COVID-19 case counts of numerous countries across various continents. Specifically, 62 nations showed significant correlations with at least one correlated (connected) country per nation. These correlations indicate a similarity in COVID-19 trends over the past 3 or more years. Conclusion This study addresses the gap in country-specific correlations within COVID-19 forecasting methodologies. The proposed method offers essential real-time insights to aid effective government and organizational planning in response to the pandemic.