Potential for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral

Abstract

AbstractCan genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomic, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future adaptation of the common coralAcropora milleporaon the Great Barrier Reef. Loss of coral cover in recent decades did not yet have detectable effect on genetic diversity in our species. Genomic analysis of migration patterns closely matched the biophysical model of larval dispersal in favoring the spread of existing heat-tolerant alleles from lower to higher latitudes. Given these conditions we find that standing genetic variation could be sufficient to fuel rapid adaptation ofA. milleporato warming for the next 100-200 years, although random thermal anomalies would drive increasingly severe mortality episodes. However, this adaptation will inevitably cease unless the warming is slowed down, since no realistic mutation rate could replenish adaptive genetic variation fast enough.