Modelling, Simulations and Analysis of the First and Second COVID-19 Epidemics in Beijing

Abstract

AbstractModeling and simulation are important tools that can be used to control, prevent and understand an epidemic spread. This paper introduces a symptomatic-asymptomatic-recoverer-death differential equation model (SARDDE). It presents the conditions of the asymptotical stability on the disease-free equilibrium of the SARDDE. It proposes the necessary conditions of disease spreading for the SARDDE. Based on the reported data of the first and the second COVID-19 epidemics in Beijing and simulations, it determines the parameters of the SARDDE, respectively. Numerical simulations of the SARDDE describe well the outcomes of current symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, recovered symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, and died individuals, respectively. The numerical simulations suggest that both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals cause lesser asymptomatic spread than symptomatic spread; the blocking rates of about 90% and 97% to the symptomatic individuals cannot prevent the spread of the first and second COVID19 epidemics in Beijing, respectively. Virtual simulations suggest that the strict prevention and control strategies implemented by Beijing government are effective and necessary. The numerical simulations suggest also that using the data from the beginning to the days after about two weeks from the turning points can estimate approximately the following outcomes of the two COVID-19 academics, respectively. A recommendation to avoid multiple epidemic outbreaks is proposed. It is expected that the research can provide better understanding, explaining, and dominating for epidemic spreads, prevention and control measures.