Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemics in Mainland China

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundGlobally COVID-19 epidemics have caused tremendous disasters. China prevented effectively the spread of COVID-19 epidemics before 2022. Recently Omicron and Delta variants cause a surge in reported COVID-19 infections.MethodsUsing differential equations and real word data, this study modelings and simulates COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, estimates transmission rates, recovery rates, and blocking rates to symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. The transmission rates and recovery rates of the foreign input COVID-19 infected individuals in mainland China have also been studied.ResultsThe simulation results were in good agreement with the real word data. The recovery rates of the foreign input symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals are much higher than those of the mainland COVID-19 infected individuals. The blocking rates to symptomatic and asymptomatic mainland infections are lower than those of the previous epidemics in mainland China. The blocking rate implemented between March 24-31, 2022 may not prevent the rapid spreads of COVID-19 epidemics in mainland China. For the foreign input COVID-19 epidemics, the numbers of the current symptomatic individuals and the asymptomatic individuals charged in medical observations have decreased significantly after March 17 2022.ConclusionsNeed to implement more strict prevention and control strategies to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemics in mainland China. Keeping the present prevention and therapy measures to foreign input COVID-19 infections can rapidly reduce the number of foreign input infected individuals to a very low level.