What difference do retractions make? An estimate of the epistemic impact of retractions on recent meta-analyses

Abstract

ABSTRACTEvery year, several hundred publications are retracted due to fabrication and falsification of data or plagiarism and other breeches of research integrity and ethics. Despite considerable research on this phenomenon, the extent to which a retraction requires revising previous scientific estimates and beliefs – which we define as the epistemic impact - is unknown. We collected a representative sample of recently retracted studies that had been included in recent meta-analyses, and compared the summary effect size of these meta analyses with and without the refracted studies. On average, the retractions had occurred about six years prior to the publication of the corresponding meta-analyses.Our results suggest that retractions have varying impacts depending on their causes. In particular, removing from an analysis a study retracted because of issues with data, methods or results, led to a statistically significant reduction of the estimated effect size. Assuming that the results of these retracted studies are completely false, then the meta-analyses that had included them had overestimated the summary effect sizes by, averaging across effect size metrics, 30% (median, 13%). However, retractions due to plagiarism or other issues not related to data, methods or results had no impact on the conclusions of meta-analyses.Since retractions due to plagiarism or other non-data related issues typically constitute over 75% of total retractions, our results suggest that the epistemic impact of most retractions is likely to be null. However, our results also suggest that retractions due to issues with data, methods or results should be accompanied by a revision of relevant meta-analyses, and by extension a downwards revision of prior scientific beliefs.