Corridors of Clarity: Four Principles to Overcome Uncertainty Paralysis in the Anthropocene

Author:

Polasky Stephen1,Crépin Anne-Sophie2ORCID,Biggs Reinette (Oonsie)3,Carpenter Stephen R4,Folke Carl1,Peterson Garry5,Scheffer Marten6,Barrett Scott7,Daily Gretchen8,Ehrlich Paul8,Howarth Richard B9,Hughes Terry10,Levin Simon A11,Shogren Jason F12,Troell Max1,Walker Brian13,Xepapadeas Anastasios14

Affiliation:

1. Departments of Applied Economics and Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

2. Deputy director, Carl Folke is the director, and Max Troell is a researcher, Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden

3. codirector of the Centre for Complex Systems in Transition and holds a chair in social–ecological systems and resilience, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa

4. Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison

5. Sustainability science, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

6. Environmental sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands

7. Natural resource economics, Columbia University, New York, New York

8. Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California

9. Environmental studies, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire

10. James Cook University, Townsville, North Queensland, Australia

11. Ecology and evolutionary biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

12. Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming

13. Ecology, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, Australia

14. Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece, and at the University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

Abstract

Abstract Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details.

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

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