Independent perturbations for physics parametrization tendencies in a convection-permitting ensemble (pSPPT)

Abstract

Abstract. A modification of the widely used SPPT (Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies) scheme is proposed and tested in a Convection-permitting – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting system (C-LAEF) developed at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik). The tendencies from four physical parametrization schemes are perturbed: radiation, shallow convection, turbulence, and microphysics. Whereas in SPPT the total model tendencies are perturbed, in the present approach (pSPPT hereinafter) the partial tendencies of the physics parametrization schemes are sequentially perturbed. Thus, in pSPPT an interaction between the uncertainties of the different physics parametrization schemes is sustained and a more physically consistent relationship between the processes is kept. Two configurations of pSPPT are evaluated over two separate months (one in summer and another in winter). Both schemes increase the stability of the model and lead to statistically significant improvements in the probabilistic performance compared to a reference run without stochastic physics. An evaluation of selected test cases shows that the positive effect of stochastic physics is much more pronounced on days with high convective activity. Small discrepancies in the humidity analysis can be dedicated to the use of a very simple supersaturation adjustment. This and other adjustments are discussed to provide some suggestions for future investigations.