Evolution of squall line variability and error growth in an ensemble of large eddy simulations

Author:

Groot EdwardORCID,Tost HolgerORCID

Abstract

Abstract. A chain of processes is identified that regulates much of the spread in an ensemble of squall lines in large eddy simulations with tight initial conditions. Patterns of gravity wave propagation de-correlate and restructure the initial condition spread until a second phase of convective initiation is taking place, i.e. after 30 min of simulation time. Subsequently, variability in this convective initiation and mass overturn is associated with differences in cold pool propagation within the ensemble (propagation at 2–4 m s−1. An ensemble sensitivity analysis reveals that anomalies in squall-line-relative flow with respect to the ensemble mean are also associated with the secondary convective initiation. Downdraughts are fed with extra air by a convergence zone on the rearward flank of the updraughts. An analysis of difference growth within the ensemble shows that a substantial proportion of variability is explained by cold pool propagation contrasts during this stage (30–80 min), which is partly removed when a feature-relative perspective is taken. The patterns of coherent variability exist on the timescale of an hour and dissipate subsequently (80–100 min).

Funder

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

Carl-Zeiss-Stiftung

Publisher

Copernicus GmbH

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Divergent convective outflow in large-eddy simulations;Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics;2023-06-02

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