Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) rainfall curves in Senegal
-
Published:2018-07-05
Issue:7
Volume:18
Page:1849-1866
-
ISSN:1684-9981
-
Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Sane Youssouph, Panthou GeremyORCID, Bodian AnsoumanaORCID, Vischel TheoORCID, Lebel Thierry, Dacosta Honore, Quantin Guillaume, Wilcox CatherineORCID, Ndiaye Ousmane, Diongue-Niang Aida, Diop Kane Mariane
Abstract
Abstract. Urbanization resulting from sharply increasing demographic pressure and
infrastructure development has made the populations of many tropical areas
more vulnerable to extreme rainfall hazards. Characterizing extreme rainfall
distribution in a coherent way in space and time is thus becoming an
overarching need that requires using appropriate models of
intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. Using a 14 series of 5 min
rainfall records collected in Senegal, a comparison of two generalized
extreme value (GEV) and scaling models is carried out, resulting in the
selection of the more parsimonious one (four parameters), as the recommended model for
use. A bootstrap approach is proposed to compute the uncertainty associated
with the estimation of these four parameters and of the related rainfall
return levels for durations ranging from 1 to 24 h. This study
confirms previous works showing that simple scaling holds for characterizing
the temporal scaling of extreme rainfall in tropical regions such as
sub-Saharan Africa. It further provides confidence intervals for the
parameter estimates and shows that the uncertainty linked to the estimation
of the GEV parameters is 3 to 4 times larger than the uncertainty linked to
the inference of the scaling parameter. From this model, maps of IDF
parameters over Senegal are produced, providing a spatial vision of their
organization over the country, with a north to south gradient for the
location and scale parameters of the GEV. An influence of the distance from
the ocean was found for the scaling parameter. It is acknowledged in
conclusion that climate change renders the inference of IDF curves sensitive
to increasing non-stationarity effects, which requires warning end-users that
such tools should be used with care and discernment.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference59 articles.
1. Agbazo, M., Koto N'Gobi, G., Kounouhewa, B., Alamou, E., Afouda, A., and Akpo,
A.: Estimation of IDF Curves of Extreme Rainfall by Simple
Scaling in Northern Oueme Valley, Benin Republic (West
Africa), Earth Sci. Res. J., 20, 1–7,
2016. a, b, c, d 2. Bara, M., Kohnová, S., Gaál, L., Szolgay, J., and Hlavcová, K.:
Estimation
of IDF curves of extreme rainfall by simple scaling in Slovakia,
Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, 39, 187–206, 2009. a 3. Begueria, S. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Mapping the hazard of extreme rainfall
by peaks over threshold extreme value analysis and spatial regression
techniques, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 45, 108–124,
2006. a 4. Blanchet, J., Marty, C., and Lehning, M.: Extreme value statistics of snowfall
in the Swiss Alpine region, Water Resour. Res., 45, W05424, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR007916, 2009. a 5. Blanchet, J., Ceresetti, D., Molinié, G., and Creutin, J.-D.: A regional
GEV
scale-invariant framework for Intensity–Duration–Frequency
analysis, J. Hydrol., 540, 82–95, 2016. a, b, c
Cited by
42 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|