Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
-
Published:2015-08-18
Issue:4
Volume:9
Page:1579-1600
-
ISSN:1994-0424
-
Container-title:The Cryosphere
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:The Cryosphere
Author:
Cornford S. L.ORCID, Martin D. F.ORCID, Payne A. J.ORCID, Ng E. G., Le Brocq A. M., Gladstone R. M.ORCID, Edwards T. L.ORCID, Shannon S. R., Agosta C.ORCID, van den Broeke M. R.ORCID, Hellmer H. H., Krinner G.ORCID, Ligtenberg S. R. M., Timmermann R., Vaughan D. G.
Abstract
Abstract. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.
Funder
Advanced Scientific Computing Research
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Earth-Surface Processes,Water Science and Technology
Reference56 articles.
1. Agosta, C., Favier, V., Krinner, G., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., and Genthon, C.: High-resolution modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, application for the twentieth, twenty first and twenty second centuries, Clim. Dynam., 41, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1903-9, 2013. 2. Arthern, R. J. and Gudmundsson, G. H.: Initialization of ice-sheet forecasts viewed as an inverse Robin problem, J. Glaciol., 56, 527–533, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310792447699, 2010. 3. Borstad, C. P., Khazendar, A., Larour, E., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Schodlok, M. P., and Seroussi, H.: A damage mechanics assessment of the Larsen B ice shelf prior to collapse: toward a physically-based calving law: a calving law based on damage mechanics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053317, 2012. 4. Connolley, W. M. and Bracegirdle, T. J.: An Antarctic assessment of IPCC AR4 coupled models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22505, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031648, 2007. 5. Cornford, S. L., Martin, D. F., Graves, D. T., Ranken, D. F., Le Brocq, A. M., Gladstone, R. M., Payne, A. J., Ng, E. G., and Lipscomb, W. H.: Adaptive mesh, finite volume modeling of marine ice sheets, J. Comput. Phys., 232, 529–549, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2012.08.037, 2013.
Cited by
120 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|