An improved regional coupled modeling system for Arctic sea ice simulation and prediction: a case study for 2018
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Published:2022-02-08
Issue:3
Volume:15
Page:1155-1176
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ISSN:1991-9603
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Container-title:Geoscientific Model Development
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Geosci. Model Dev.
Author:
Yang Chao-YuanORCID, Liu Jiping, Chen Dake
Abstract
Abstract. The improved and updated Coupled Arctic Prediction System (CAPS) is evaluated
using a set of Pan-Arctic prediction experiments for the year 2018. CAPS is
built on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), the Regional Ocean
Modeling System (ROMS), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), and a data
assimilation based on the local error subspace transform Kalman filter. We
analyze physical processes linking improved and changed physical
parameterizations in WRF, ROMS, and CICE to changes in the simulated Arctic
sea ice state. Our results show that the improved convection and boundary
layer schemes in WRF result in an improved simulation of downward radiative
fluxes and near-surface air temperature, which influences the predicted ice
thickness. The changed tracer advection and vertical mixing schemes in ROMS
reduce the bias in sea surface temperature and change ocean temperature and
salinity structure in the surface layer, leading to improved evolution of
the predicted ice extent (particularly correcting the late ice recovery
issue in the previous CAPS). The improved sea ice thermodynamics in CICE
have noticeable influences on the predicted ice thickness. The updated CAPS
can better predict the evolution of Arctic sea ice during the melting season
compared with its predecessor, though the prediction still has some biases
at the regional scale. We further show that the updated CAPS can remain
skillful beyond the melting season, which may have a potential value for
stakeholders to make decisions for socioeconomic activities in the Arctic.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
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