Trends in demand on the organic food market in the European countries

Abstract

The sector of organic agriculture is attractive for investment, and the organic food market demonstrates a dynamic growth. The article suggests methodological approaches to the analysis of demand trends on the organic food market based on the use of growth curves. The dynamics of changes in the consumption of organic products per capita is characterized by a sequential single passage of the stages of development (growth), the achievement of maximum indicators (saturation), recessions, and cessation of existence. As the main factors determining the rate of development and the potential consumption of organic food products per capita, the level of incomes and life of the population was considered. The potential consumption of organic food products per capita in different countries is grounded, taking into account these factors. Based on the analysis of the functions of the growth rates of the per capita demand for organic food products derived from the estimated demand growth curves, the stages of the life cycle of organic food products on the European markets were analyzed, and the exhaustion of the potential demand for organic products in all considered countries except Britain was identified. It is expected that the further expansion of organic food production in the European producer countries will be facilitated by the reorientation to new markets actively importing this product (China, Russia, Japan, and Singapore).