SARS-CoV-2: The Second Wave in Europe

Abstract

Although the SARS-CoV-2 virus has already undergone several mutations, the impact of these mutations on its infectivity and virulence remains controversial. In this viewpoint, we present arguments suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 mutants responsible for the second wave have less virulence but much higher infectivity. This suggestion is based on the results of the forecasting and mechanistic models developed by our study group. In particular, in May 2020, the analysis of our mechanistic model predicted that the easing of lockdown measures will lead to a dramatic second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. However, after the lockdown was lifted in many European countries, the resulting number of reported infected cases and especially the number of deaths remained low for approximately two months. This raised the false hope that a substantial second wave will be avoided and that the COVID-19 epidemic in these European countries was nearing an end. Unfortunately, since the first week of August 2020, the number of reported infected cases increased dramatically. Furthermore, this was accompanied by an increasingly large number of deaths. The rate of reported infected cases in the second wave was much higher than that in the first wave, whereas the rate of deaths was lower. This trend is consistent with higher infectivity and lower virulence. Even if the mutated form of SARS-CoV-2 is less virulent, the very high number of reported infected cases implies that a large number of people will perish.