Affiliation:
1. College of Pharmacy, Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, Wuhan, China
2. Wufeng Tujia Autonomous County Agricultural Science and Technology Demonstration Center, Yichang, China
3. Wufeng Tujia Autonomous County Herbal Medicine Development Center, Yichang, China
Abstract
Background
Gastrodia elata is widely used in China as a valuable herbal medicine. Owing to its high medicinal and nutrient value, wild resources of G. elata have been overexploited and its native areas have been severely damaged. Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of this endangered species is important for the conservation and sustainable use of G. elata.
Methods
We used the optimized maximum entropy model to simulate the potential distribution of G. elata under contemporary and future time periods (1970–2000, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Under these conditions, we investigated the key environmental factors influencing the distribution of G. elata as well as the spatial and temporal characteristics of its niche dynamics.
Results
With high Maxent model accuracy (AUCmean = 0.947 ± 0.012, and the Kappa value is 0.817), our analysis revealed that annual precipitation, altitude, and mean temperature of driest quarter are the most important environmental factors influencing the distribution of G. elata. Under current bioclimatic conditions, the potentially suitable area for G. elata in China is 71.98 × 104 km2, while the highly suitable region for G. elata growth is 7.28 × 104 km2. Our models for three future periods under four climate change scenarios indicate that G. elata can maintain stable distributions in southern Shaanxi, southwestern Hubei, and around the Sichuan basin, as these areas are highly suitable for its growth. However, the center of the highly suitable areas of G. elata shift depending on different climatic scenarios. The values of niche overlap for G. elata show a decreasing trend over the forecasted periods, of which the niche overlap under the SSP3-7.0 scenario shows the greatest decrease.
Discussions
Under the condition of global climate change in the future, our study provides basic reference data for the conservation and sustainable utilization of the valuable and endangered medicinal plant G. elata. It is important to carefully choose the protection area of G. elata wild resources according the suitable area conditions modeled. Moreover, these findings will be valuable for providing insights into the breeding and artificial cultivation of this plant, including the selection of suitable areas for planting.
Funder
Hubei University of Chinese Medicine
Subject
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Medicine,General Neuroscience
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献