The Characteristics of Key Analysis Errors. Part I: Dynamical Balance and Comparison with Observations

Author:

Caron Jean-François1,Yau M. K.1,Laroche Stéphane2,Zwack Peter3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada

2. Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment Canada, Dorval, Québec, Canada

3. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada

Abstract

Abstract The characteristics of the initial corrections obtained from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) energy-norm-based key analysis error algorithm that minimizes short-range (24 h) forecast errors were investigated for four specific CMC operational analyses. The results show that both the rotational and the divergent components of the initial corrections are strongly out of balance. Some dispersive modes are also present in the mass component of the initial corrections. The results from one experiment where the initial state errors were known suggest that the current algorithm always selects a set of unbalanced initial corrections with more mass correction than wind correction, regardless of the characteristics of the real initial condition errors. Comparison with observational data showed that the corrected analysis is systematically farther away from the observations than the control analysis even in large forecast error events where most of the forecast errors are believed to have originated from errors in the initial state.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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