A 39-Yr Survey of Cloud Changes from Land Stations Worldwide 1971–2009: Long-Term Trends, Relation to Aerosols, and Expansion of the Tropical Belt

Abstract

Abstract An archive of land-based, surface-observed cloud reports has been updated and now spans 39 years from 1971 through 2009. Cloud-type information at weather stations is available in individual reports or in long-term, seasonal, and monthly averages. A shift to a new data source and the automation of cloud reporting in some countries has reduced the number of available stations; however, this dataset still represents most of the global land area. Global-average trends of cloud cover suggest a small decline in total cloud cover, on the order of 0.4% per decade. Declining clouds in middle latitudes at high and middle levels appear responsible for this trend. An analysis of zonal cloud cover changes suggests poleward shifts of the jet streams in both hemispheres. The observed displacement agrees with other studies. Changes seen in cloud types associated with the Indian monsoon are consistent with previous work suggesting that increased pollution (black carbon) may be affecting monsoonal precipitation, causing drought in northern India. A similar analysis over northern China does not show an obvious aerosol connection. Past reports claiming a shift from stratiform to cumuliform cloud types over Russia were apparently partially based on spurious data. When the faulty stations are removed, a trade-off of stratiform and cumuliform cloud cover is still observed, but muted, over much of northern Eurasia.