Dark Warming

Abstract

Abstract As the Arctic sea ice thins and ultimately disappears in a warming climate, its insulating power decreases. This causes the surface air temperature to approach the temperature of the relatively warm ocean water below the ice. The resulting increases in air temperature, water vapor, and cloudiness lead to an increase in the surface downwelling longwave radiation (DLR), which enables a further thinning of the ice. This positive ice–insulation feedback operates mainly in the autumn and winter. A climate change simulation with the Community Earth System Model shows that, averaged over the year, the increase in Arctic DLR is 3 times stronger than the increase in Arctic absorbed solar radiation at the surface. The warming of the surface air over the Arctic Ocean during fall and winter creates a strong thermal contrast with the colder surrounding continents. Sea level pressure falls over the Arctic Ocean, and the high-latitude circulation reorganizes into a shallow “winter monsoon.” The resulting increase in surface wind speed promotes stronger surface evaporation and higher humidity over portions of the Arctic Ocean, thus reinforcing the ice–insulation feedback.