Evaluation of Polar WRF from Modeling the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Antarctic Sea Ice in Autumn and Winter

Abstract

Abstract Regional simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer over Antarctic sea ice that have been adequately validated are rare. To address this gap, the authors use the doubly nested Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) mesoscale model to simulate conditions during Ice Station Weddell (ISW) in the austral autumn and winter of 1992. The WRF simulations test two boundary layer schemes: Mellor–Yamada–Janjic and the Asymmetric Convective Model. Validation is against surface-layer and sounding observations from ISW. Simulated latent and sensible heat fluxes for both boundary layer schemes had poor correlation with the observed fluxes. Simulated surface temperature had better correlation with the observations, with a typical bias of 0–2 K and a root-mean-square error of 6–7 K. For surface temperature and wind speed, the Polar WRF yielded better results than the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim). A more challenging test of the simulations is to reproduce features of the low-level jet and the temperature inversion, which were observed, respectively, in 80% and 96% of the ISW radiosoundings. Both boundary layer schemes produce only about half as many jets as were observed. Moreover, the simulated jet coincided with an observed jet only about 30% of the time. The number of temperature inversions and the height at the inversion base were better reproduced, although this was not the case with the depth of the inversion layer. Simulations of the temperature inversion improved when forecasts of cloud fraction agreed to within 0.3 with observations. The modeled inversions were strongest when the incoming longwave radiation was smallest, but this relationship was not observed at ISW.