Differences in Near-Storm Parameters Useful for Forecasting Intensity of Nocturnal and Diurnal Bow Echo Winds

Abstract

Abstract Because bow echoes are often associated with damaging wind, accurate prediction of their severity is important. Recent work by Mauri and Gallus showed that despite increased challenges in forecasting nocturnal bows due to an incomplete understanding of how elevated convection interacts with the nocturnal stable boundary layer, several near-storm environmental parameters worked well to distinguish between bow echoes not producing severe winds (NS), those only producing low-intensity severe winds [LS; 50–55 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1)], and those associated with high-intensity (HS; >70 kt) severe winds. The present study performs a similar comparison for daytime warm-season bow echoes examining the same 43 SPC mesoanalysis parameters for 158 events occurring from 2010 to 2018. Although low-level shear and the meridional component of the wind discriminate well for nocturnal bow severity, they do not significantly differ in daytime bows. CAPE parameters discriminate well between daytime NS events and severe ones, but not between LS and HS, differing from nocturnal events where they discriminate between HS and the other types. The 500–850-hPa layer lapse rate works better to differentiate daytime bow severity, whereas the 500–700-hPa layer works better at night. Composite parameters work well to differentiate between all three severity types for daytime bow echoes, just as they do for nighttime ones, with the derecho composite parameter performing especially well. Heidke skill scores indicate that both individual and pairs of parameters generally are not as skillful at predicting daytime bow echo wind severity as they are at predicting nocturnal bow wind severity.