A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos: Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts

Abstract

Abstract Over the course of the century, much research has been done to understand how derechos form, what environments support derecho development, and how forecasts of derechos can be improved. Following the definition, climatology, and societal impacts of derechos in Part I of this manuscript, Part II offers a thorough review on the parent MCS structures that produce derechos, which synoptic setups support derecho-producing MCSs, and the successes and failures of forecasting derechos. This manuscript reviews the 3D structure of MCSs that support derecho development, as well as both the strongly and weakly forced synoptic environments where derechos frequently occur. In addition, successes and failures common among most derecho numerical forecast studies are discussed to suggest where the greatest improvements in derecho forecasting may be made.