Nocturnal Convection Initiation over Inland South China during a Record-Breaking Heavy Rainfall Event

Abstract

Abstract A local long-lived convective system developed at midnight over inland South China, producing record-breaking rainfall in Guangzhou on 7 May 2017. This study examines the physical processes responsible for nocturnal convection initiation (CI) and growth. Observational analyses show that the CI occurs in the warm sector under weakly forced synoptic conditions at 500 hPa, while moderate but nocturnally enhanced low-level southeasterlies with a mesoscale moist tongue at 925 hPa intrude inland from the northern South China Sea. Convection-permitting model results show that mesoscale low-level convergence and increased moisture at the leading edge of the southeasterlies are favorable for CI dynamically and thermodynamically. Local ascent and potential instability are further enhanced by orographic lifting and warm moist air from the urban surface, respectively, which trigger convection in northern Guangzhou. The mesoscale moist tongue of southeasterly flows then meets convectively generated outflows, thereby maintaining strong updrafts and continuously triggering back-building convective cells in eastern Guangzhou. Sensitivity tests are conducted to estimate the relative roles of ambient southeasterly moist tongue and urban thermal effects. The southeasterly moist tongue provides moisture that is crucial for CI, while warm moist air from the urban surface is lifted at the leading edge of the southeasterlies and locally facilitates convection. Therefore, the mesoscale processes of lifting and moistening due to nocturnal southeasterlies and their strong interaction with the local factors (orographic lifting, urban heating, and cold-pool-related ascent) provide the sustained lifting and instability crucial for triggering the local long-lived convective systems. The multiscale processes shed light on the understanding of the nocturnal warm-sector heavy rainfall inland.