Probabilistic Forecasts of Snow Water Equivalent and Runoff in Mountainous Areas*

Abstract

Abstract Good initial states can improve the skill of hydrological ensemble predictions. In mountainous regions such as Switzerland, snow is an important component of the hydrological system. Including estimates of snow cover in hydrological models is of great significance for the prediction of both flood and streamflow drought events. In this study, gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) maps, derived from daily snow depth measurements, are used within the gridded version of the conceptual hydrological model Precipitation Runoff Evapotranspiration Hydrotope (PREVAH) to replace the model SWE at initialization. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (ENS) reforecast is used as meteorological input for 32-day forecasts of streamflow and SWE. Experiments were performed in several parts of the Alpine Rhine and the Thur River. Predictions where modeled SWE estimates were replaced with SWE maps could successfully enhance the predictability of SWE up to a lead time of 25 days, especially at the beginning and the end of the snow season. Additionally, the prediction of the runoff volume was improved, particularly in catchments where the snow accumulation, and thus the runoff volume, had been greatly overestimated. These improvements in predictions have been made without affecting the ability of the forecast system to discriminate between the different runoff volumes observed. A spatial similarity score was first used in the context of SWE forecast verification. This confirmed the findings of the time series analysis and yielded additional insight on regional patterns of extended range SWE predictability.