Assimilating MTSAT-Derived Humidity in Nowcasting Sea Fog over the Yellow Sea

Abstract

Abstract An extended three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) method based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is developed to assimilate satellite-derived humidity from sea fog at its initial stage over the Yellow Sea. The sea fog properties, including its horizontal distribution and thickness, are retrieved empirically from the infrared and visible cloud imageries of the Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT). Assuming a relative humidity of 100% in fog, the MTSAT-derived humidity is assimilated by the extended 3DVAR assimilation method. Two sea fog cases, one spread widely over the Yellow Sea and the other spread narrowly along the coast, are first studied in detail with a suite of experiments. For the widespread-fog case, the assimilation of MTSAT-derived information significantly improves the forecast of the sea fog area, increasing the probability of detection and equitable threat scores by about 20% and 15%, respectively. The improvement is attributed to a more realistic representation of the marine boundary layer (MBL) and better descriptions of moisture and temperature profiles. For the narrowly spread coastal case, the model completely fails to reproduce the sea fog event without the assimilation of MTSAT-derived humidity. The extended 3DVAR assimilation method is then applied to 10 more sea fog cases to further evaluate its effect on the model simulations. The results reveal that the assimilation of MTSAT-derived humidity not only improves sea fog forecasts but also provides better moisture and temperature structure information in the MBL.