Analysis of the different influence between initial/boundary and physical perturbation during ensemble forecast of fog

Author:

Wang Xuelian,Qiu XiaobinORCID,Wu Bingui,Dong Qiru,Liu Lili,Li Yinghua,Tian Meng

Abstract

AbstractTo explore the different effects of initial/boundary condition (ICBC) and physical perturbation during fog ensemble forecast, ensemble forecast experiments are done for a heavy fog episode from December 31, 2016 to January 2, 2017. Three ensemble schemes [ICBC, multi-physics (MPY), and a combination of ICBC and MPY (COM)] were compared. Their forecast performances are analyzed in detail and compared with the reference deterministic forecast. The results show that all ensemble schemes, especially the COM, are able to noticeably improve fog prediction. The TS score of ensemble-based fog forecast with 50% probability threshold is higher than that of the control deterministic prediction by ~ 26%. Compared with the ICBC scheme, the MPY scheme can produce a larger ensemble spread and has more skill in fog and the near-surface variables forecast. When ICBC and MPY are combined (the COM scheme), the ensemble spread is enhanced and the prediction performance is also further improved. The sensitivity experiments of different physical parameterization schemes are also analyzed among microphysics, planetary boundary layer, and land surface. The fog forecast is found to be most sensitive to the land surface scheme, followed by planetary boundary layer scheme, and the least sensitive to microphysics.

Funder

the Research project of the Key project of Tianjin Meteorological Bureau

Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin

China Meteorological Administration Innovation Development Project

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Atmospheric Science

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3