Valuing Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the Northern Australia Beef Industry

Abstract

AbstractSeasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) provide opportunities for pastoralists to align production decisions to climatic conditions, as SCFs offer economic value by increasing certainty about future climatic states at decision-making time. Insufficient evidence about the economic value of SCFs was identified as a major factor limiting adoption of SCFs in Australia and abroad. This study examines the value of SCFs to beef production system management in northern Australia by adopting a theoretical probabilistic climate forecast system. Stocking rate decisions in October, before the onset of the wet season, were identified by industry as a key climate sensitive decision. The analysis considered SCF value across economic drivers (steer price in October) and environmental drivers (October pasture availability). A range in forecast value was found ($0–$14 per head) dependent on pasture availability, beef price, and SCF skill. Skillful forecasts of future climate conditions offered little value with medium or high pasture availability, as in these circumstances pastures were rarely overutilized. In contrast, low pasture availability provided conditions for alternative optimal stocking rates and for SCFs to be valuable. Optimal stocking rates under low pasture availability varied the most with climate state (i.e., wet or dry), indicating that producers have more to gain from a skillful SCF at these times. Although the level of pasture availability in October was the major determinant of stocking rate decisions, beef price settings were also found to be important. This analysis provides insights into the potential value of SCFs to extensive beef enterprises and can be used by pastoralists to evaluate the cost benefit of using a SCF in annual management.