Delayed Finalization of Sodium Targets in the United States May Cost Over 250 000 Lives by 2031

Abstract

Background: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed 2- and 10-year voluntary sodium-reduction targets for >150 packaged- and prepared-food categories in 2016 and finalized the short-term targets in 2021. Methods: We modeled the health benefits of implementing the newly finalized sodium targets, and the net health losses because of the 4.3-year delay in finalizing the sodium targets in different compliance scenarios in adults aged ≥30, using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2015 to 2016 cycle. The health impact was estimated by multiplying the projected reduction in population sodium intake by the annual health benefits resulting from every 1000-mg reduction in daily sodium intake. Results: Under certain assumptions, the FDA’s finalization of the short-term targets in Oct 2021 and possible finalization of the long-term targets by April 2024 is projected to save up to 445 979 (95% CI, 17 349–787 352) lives in the coming 10 years. The net number of unnecessary deaths because of FDA’s delay is projected to be as high as 264 644 (95% CI, 10 295–467 215) according to our prediction. Conclusions: These findings highlight the enormous health costs due to the FDA’s delay in finalizing the sodium-reduction targets, and the great potential health benefits of industry compliance with the FDA’s finalization of its short- and long-term targets in the coming 10 years.