Projected impact on blood pressure, chronic kidney disease burden and healthcare costs of achieving the Australian sodium reduction targets: a modelling study

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundExcess sodium intake increases blood pressure and risk of vascular complications. Most studies have focused on heart disease and stroke, but the impact on chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less well-characterised. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of sodium intake on CKD burden in Australia.MethodsA dynamic epidemiological model was developed to estimate the potential impact on CKD if the Australian Suggested Dietary Target (SDT) and the National Preventive Health Strategy 2021-2030 (NPHS) sodium target were achieved. Outcomes were estimated between 2019 (base year) and 2030, and lifetime.FindingsAchieving the SDT and NPHS target could lower overall mean systolic blood pressure by 2.1 mmHg and 1.7 mmHg respectively. Compared to current sodium intake levels, attaining the SDT could prevent 59,220 (95% UI, 53,140 – 65,500) incident CKD cases and 568 (95% UI, 479 – 652) CKD deaths by 2030. Over the lifetime, this is projected to generate 199,488 (95% UI, 180,910 – 218,340) HALYs and AU$ 644 million in CKD health expenditure savings. Similarly, if achieved, the NPHS is estimated to prevent 49,890 (95% UI, 44,377 – 55,569) incident CKD cases and 511 (95% UI, 426 – 590) CKD deaths by 2030. Over the lifetime, this could produce 170,425 (95% UI, 155,017 – 186,559) HALYs and AU$ 514 million in CKD health expenditure savings.ConclusionAchieving the national sodium reduction targets could deliver substantial health and economic benefits for people with CKD in Australia. Robust government action is required in order to achieve the projected outcomes of these policy targets.