Russian population reproduction: challenges, trends, factors and possible results by 2024

Abstract

The article assesses the probability of fulfilling the tasks set by the President of the Russian Federation in the May 2018 Decree in the field of population reproduction. Each of the tasks outlines the current situation, current trends and the most likely results. Factors that contribute to or counteract solutions to the designated problems are identified. In particular, increase or even preservation of the number of births will be hindered by constant reduction since 2015 in the number of women of active reproductive age (25-39 years), who account for 4/5 of all births [1]. Their number will reduce from 17.9 million in 2015 to 15.0 million in 2024, and up to 12.0 million in 2030 [1]. Reduction in deaths from circulatory diseases and neoplasm will be prevented by: the tendency of population ageing; persistence and impossibility of rapid eradicating bad habits, such as smoking, regular excessive drinking; poor quality of food and alcohol, etc. In addition, in the future, with increase in the life expectancy (LE) in Russia, those, who have been cured of diseases related to other major causes of death, eventually will start dying from circulatory diseases or oncology. It is these diseases that are the leading causes of death in countries with high LE. There are made the following conclusions: it will be actually impossible to achieve the goal of “increasing the population of the country” (set in the Decree) only by reproductive means in the near future in Russia. To solve Russia's general demographic problems (ensuring a positive overall population growth; optimizing the placement of the population on its territory not only in the economic, but also in the geopolitical interests of the state; redemption of the structural demographic wave volatility; etc.), it is necessary to follow coordinated reproduction and migration routes.