Factor analysis of changes in labor force parameters

Abstract

Subject. This article examines changes in the parameters of the economically active population that meet the needs of the dynamic growth of the domestic economy and its international competitiveness. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and assess the factors of change in the number of economically active population of Russia and make a forecast for the period up to 2036. Methods. For the study, we used statistical and factor analyses, and a competitive edge approach. Results. Based on the consideration of the cause-and-effect relationships between economic development and population growth, quantitative and qualitative parameters of the labor force, as well as the prerequisites and factors of their change, the article presents a forecast of the dynamics of the economically active population, taking into account the reduction in natural growth and aging of the population, the impact of pension reform and other factors, and an assessment of the potential for increasing the labor force due to the inclusion of new territories in Russia. Conclusions. Demographic problems, exacerbated by the military confrontation and systemic conflict with the countries of the collective West, significantly limit the possibilities of economic growth in Russia. However, the territorial and pension effects in the medium term make it possible to compensate for this negative impact.