Affiliation:
1. Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Laboratoire de Physique CNRS UMR 5672 , 46 allée d’Italie, F-69364 Lyon Cedex 7, France
Abstract
We investigate the mechanisms behind quasi-periodic outbursts on the Covid-19 epidemics. Data for France and Germany show that the patterns of outbursts exhibit a qualitative change in early 2022, which appears in a change in their average period and which is confirmed by the time–frequency analysis. This provides a signal that can be used to discriminate among several mechanisms. Two main ideas have been proposed to explain periodicity in epidemics. One involves memory effects and another considers exchanges between epidemic clusters and a reservoir of population. We test these two approaches in the particular case of the Covid-19 epidemics and show that the “cluster model” is the only one that appears to be able to explain the observed pattern with realistic parameters. The last section discusses our results in the context of early studies of epidemics, and we stress the importance to work with models with a limited number of parameters, which moreover can be sufficiently well estimated, to draw conclusions on the general mechanisms behind the observations.
Subject
Applied Mathematics,General Physics and Astronomy,Mathematical Physics,Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Reference15 articles.
1. Is spread of Covid-19 a chaotic epidemic?;Chaos, Solitons and Fractals,2021
2. Proceedings of the international conference on order in chaos, held at the center-for-nonlinear-studies, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, 24-28 May 1982. preface;Physica D,1983
3. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics;Proc. R. Soc. London, Ser. A,1927
4. The interpretation of periodicity in disease prevalence;J. R. Stat. Soc.,1929
5. Measles periodicity and community size;J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A,1957
Cited by
3 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献