Using machine learning to anticipate tipping points and extrapolate to post-tipping dynamics of non-stationary dynamical systems

Abstract

The ability of machine learning (ML) models to “extrapolate” to situations outside of the range spanned by their training data is crucial for predicting the long-term behavior of non-stationary dynamical systems (e.g., prediction of terrestrial climate change), since the future trajectories of such systems may (perhaps after crossing a tipping point) explore regions of state space which were not explored in past time-series measurements used as training data. We investigate the extent to which ML methods can yield useful results by extrapolation of such training data in the task of forecasting non-stationary dynamics, as well as conditions under which such methods fail. In general, we find that ML can be surprisingly effective even in situations that might appear to be extremely challenging, but do (as one would expect) fail when “too much” extrapolation is required. For the latter case, we show that good results can potentially be obtained by combining the ML approach with an available inaccurate conventional model based on scientific knowledge.