The Impact of Eastern Pacific Warming on Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis

Abstract

AbstractTropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic is influenced by environmental parameters including vertical wind shear, which is sensitive to forcing from the tropical Pacific. Reliable projections of the response of such parameters to radiative forcing are key to understanding the future of hurricanes and coastal risk. One of the least certain aspects of future climate is the warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Using climate model experiments isolating the warming of the eastern Pacific and controlling for other factors including El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), changes in Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis potential by the end of this century are ∼20% lower with enhanced eastern Pacific warming. The ENSO signal in Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis potential amplifies with global warming, and that amplification is larger with enhanced eastern Pacific warming. The largest changes and dependencies on eastern Pacific warming are found in the south‐central main development region, attributable to changes in zonal overturning.