Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential
Author:
Mo LidongORCID, Zohner Constantin M.ORCID, Reich Peter B.ORCID, Liang JingjingORCID, de Miguel SergioORCID, Nabuurs Gert-JanORCID, Renner Susanne S.ORCID, van den Hoogen Johan, Araza Arnan, Herold MartinORCID, Mirzagholi Leila, Ma HaozhiORCID, Averill ColinORCID, Phillips Oliver L.ORCID, Gamarra Javier G. P.ORCID, Hordijk Iris, Routh DevinORCID, Abegg MeinradORCID, Adou Yao Yves C.ORCID, Alberti GiorgioORCID, Almeyda Zambrano Angelica M., Alvarado Braulio Vilchez, Alvarez-Dávila Esteban, Alvarez-Loayza Patricia, Alves Luciana F.ORCID, Amaral Iêda, Ammer ChristianORCID, Antón-Fernández ClaraORCID, Araujo-Murakami Alejandro, Arroyo Luzmila, Avitabile ValerioORCID, Aymard Gerardo A.ORCID, Baker Timothy R.ORCID, Bałazy Radomir, Banki OlafORCID, Barroso Jorcely G., Bastian Meredith L.ORCID, Bastin Jean-FrancoisORCID, Birigazzi Luca, Birnbaum PhilippeORCID, Bitariho RobertORCID, Boeckx PascalORCID, Bongers FransORCID, Bouriaud OlivierORCID, Brancalion Pedro H. S.ORCID, Brandl Susanne, Brearley Francis Q., Brienen RoelORCID, Broadbent Eben N., Bruelheide HelgeORCID, Bussotti Filippo, Cazzolla Gatti Roberto, César Ricardo G., Cesljar Goran, Chazdon Robin L.ORCID, Chen Han Y. H.ORCID, Chisholm ChelseaORCID, Cho Hyunkook, Cienciala EmilORCID, Clark Connie, Clark David, Colletta Gabriel D., Coomes David A.ORCID, Cornejo Valverde Fernando, Corral-Rivas José J., Crim Philip M.ORCID, Cumming Jonathan R., Dayanandan Selvadurai, de Gasper André L.ORCID, Decuyper MathieuORCID, Derroire GéraldineORCID, DeVries BenORCID, Djordjevic Ilija, Dolezal JiriORCID, Dourdain Aurélie, Engone Obiang Nestor Laurier, Enquist Brian J.ORCID, Eyre Teresa J., Fandohan Adandé BelarmainORCID, Fayle Tom M., Feldpausch Ted R., Ferreira Leandro V., Finér Leena, Fischer MarkusORCID, Fletcher Christine, Frizzera Lorenzo, Gianelle DamianoORCID, Glick Henry B., Harris David J.ORCID, Hector AndrewORCID, Hemp AndreasORCID, Hengeveld GeertenORCID, Hérault BrunoORCID, Herbohn John L., Hillers Annika, Honorio Coronado Eurídice N.ORCID, Hui CangORCID, Ibanez Thomas, Imai Nobuo, Jagodziński Andrzej M.ORCID, Jaroszewicz BogdanORCID, Johannsen Vivian KvistORCID, Joly Carlos A.ORCID, Jucker Tommaso, Jung Ilbin, Karminov ViktorORCID, Kartawinata Kuswata, Kearsley ElizabethORCID, Kenfack DavidORCID, Kennard Deborah K.ORCID, Kepfer-Rojas SebastianORCID, Keppel GunnarORCID, Khan Mohammed LatifORCID, Killeen Timothy J., Kim Hyun Seok, Kitayama Kanehiro, Köhl Michael, Korjus HennORCID, Kraxner FlorianORCID, Kucher Dmitry, Laarmann Diana, Lang Mait, Lu Huicui, Lukina Natalia V.ORCID, Maitner Brian S.ORCID, Malhi Yadvinder, Marcon EricORCID, Marimon Beatriz Schwantes, Marimon-Junior Ben HurORCID, Marshall Andrew R., Martin Emanuel H., Meave Jorge A.ORCID, Melo-Cruz Omar, Mendoza Casimiro, Mendoza-Polo Irina, Miscicki StanislawORCID, Merow CoryORCID, Monteagudo Mendoza Abel, Moreno Vanessa S., Mukul Sharif A.ORCID, Mundhenk Philip, Nava-Miranda María GuadalupeORCID, Neill DavidORCID, Neldner Victor J., Nevenic Radovan V., Ngugi Michael R., Niklaus Pascal A.ORCID, Oleksyn Jacek, Ontikov Petr, Ortiz-Malavasi Edgar, Pan YudeORCID, Paquette AlainORCID, Parada-Gutierrez Alexander, Parfenova Elena I.ORCID, Park Minjee, Parren Marc, Parthasarathy Narayanaswamy, Peri Pablo L., Pfautsch SebastianORCID, Picard Nicolas, Piedade Maria Teresa F.ORCID, Piotto DanielORCID, Pitman Nigel C. A., Poulsen Axel DalbergORCID, Poulsen John R.ORCID, Pretzsch HansORCID, Ramirez Arevalo Freddy, Restrepo-Correa Zorayda, Rodeghiero Mirco, Rolim Samir G., Roopsind Anand, Rovero FrancescoORCID, Rutishauser Ervan, Saikia PurabiORCID, Salas-Eljatib ChristianORCID, Saner Philippe, Schall PeterORCID, Schelhaas Mart-JanORCID, Schepaschenko DmitryORCID, Scherer-Lorenzen MichaelORCID, Schmid BernhardORCID, Schöngart Jochen, Searle Eric B.ORCID, Seben VladimírORCID, Serra-Diaz Josep M.ORCID, Sheil DouglasORCID, Shvidenko Anatoly Z.ORCID, Silva-Espejo Javier E., Silveira MarcosORCID, Singh James, Sist Plinio, Slik Ferry, Sonké Bonaventure, Souza Alexandre F., Stereńczak Krzysztof J.ORCID, Svenning Jens-ChristianORCID, Svoboda MiroslavORCID, Swanepoel Ben, Targhetta Natalia, Tchebakova NadjaORCID, ter Steege HansORCID, Thomas Raquel, Tikhonova ElenaORCID, Umunay Peter M.ORCID, Usoltsev Vladimir A., Valencia Renato, Valladares Fernando, van der Plas FonsORCID, Van Do TranORCID, van Nuland Michael E.ORCID, Vasquez Rodolfo M., Verbeeck HansORCID, Viana HelderORCID, Vibrans Alexander C.ORCID, Vieira SimoneORCID, von Gadow KlausORCID, Wang Hua-Feng, Watson James V., Werner Gijsbert D. A., Wiser Susan K.ORCID, Wittmann Florian, Woell Hannsjoerg, Wortel Verginia, Zagt Roderik, Zawiła-Niedźwiecki Tomasz, Zhang ChunyuORCID, Zhao Xiuhai, Zhou Mo, Zhu Zhi-Xin, Zo-Bi Irie C.ORCID, Gann George D., Crowther Thomas W.ORCID
Abstract
AbstractForests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Multidisciplinary
Reference107 articles.
1. Pan, Y., Birdsey, R. A., Phillips, O. L. & Jackson, R. B. The structure, distribution, and biomass of the world’s forests. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 44, 593–622 (2013). 2. Walker, W. et al. The global potential for increased storage of carbon on land. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 119, e2111312119 (2022). 3. Bastin, J. F. et al. The global tree restoration potential. Science 364, 76–79 (2019). 4. Erb, K.-H. et al. Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass. Nature 553, 73–76 (2018). 5. Roebroek, C. T. J., Duveiller, G., Seneviratne, S. I., Davin, E. L. & Cescatt, A. Releasing global forests from human management: How much more carbon could be stored? Science 380, 749–753 (2023).
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