Abstract
AbstractThe complete or partial collapse of the forests of Amazonia is consistently named as one of the top ten possible tipping points of Planet Earth in a changing climate. However, apart from a few observational studies that showed increased mortality after the severe droughts of 2005 and 2010, the evidence for such collapse depends primarily on modelling. Such studies are notoriously deficient at predicting the rainfall in the Amazon basin and how the vegetation interacts with the rainfall is poorly represented. Here, we use long-term surface-based observations of the air temperature and rainfall in Amazonia to provide a constraint on the modelled sensitivity of temperature to changes in precipitation. This emergent constraint also allows us to significantly constrain the likelihood of a forest collapse or dieback. We conclude that Amazon dieback under IPCC scenario RCP8.5 (crossing the tipping point) is not likely to occur in the twenty-first century.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Atmospheric Science,Environmental Chemistry,Global and Planetary Change
Cited by
24 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献