Characteristics and drivers of vegetation productivity sensitivity to increasing CO2 at Northern Middle and High Latitudes

Abstract

AbstractUnderstanding and accurately predicting how the sensitivity of terrestrial vegetation productivity to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (β) is crucial for assessing carbon sink dynamics. However, the temporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of β remain uncertain. Here, observational and CMIP6 modeling evidence suggest a decreasing trend in β at the Northern Middle and High Latitudes during the historical period of 1982–2015 (−0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm−1 year−1). This decreasing trend is projected to persist until the end of the 21st century (−0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm−1 year−1 under SSP370 and −0.166 ± 0.006% 100 ppm−1 year−1 under SSP585). The declining β indicates a weakening capacity of vegetation to mitigate warming climates, posing challenges for achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The rise in vapor pressure deficit (VPD), that triggers stomata closure and weakens photosynthesis, is considered as the dominated factor contributing to the historical and future decline in β, accounting for 62.3%–75.2% of the effect. Nutrient availability and water availability contribute 15.7%–21.4% and 8.5%–16.3%, respectively. These findings underscore the significant role of VPD in shaping terrestrial carbon sink dynamics, an aspect that is currently insufficiently considered in many climate and ecological models.