Long-term spatio-temporal precipitation variations in China with precipitation surface interpolated by ANUSPLIN

Abstract

AbstractClimate changes significantly impact environmental and hydrological processes. Precipitation is one of the most significant climatic parameters and its variability and trends have great influences on environmental and socioeconomic development. We investigate the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation occurrence frequency, mean precipitation depth, PVI and total precipitation in China based on long-term precipitation series from 1961 to 2015. As China’s topography is diverse and precipitation is affected by topography strongly, ANUSPLIN can model the effect of topography on precipitation effectively is adopted to generate the precipitation interpolation surface. Mann–Kendall trend analysis and simple linear regression was adopted to examine long-term trend for these indicators. The results indicate ANUSPLIN precipitation surface is reliable and the precipitation variation show different regional and seasonal trend. For example, there is a sporadic with decreasing frequency precipitation trend in spring and a uniform with increasing frequency trend in summer in Yangtze Plain, which may affect spring ploughing and alteration of flood risk for this main rice-production areas of China. In north-western China, there is a uniform with increasing precipitation frequency and intensity trend, which is beneficial for this arid region. Our study could be helpful for other counties with similar climate types.