Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Dynamics in the Southern Marmara Region of Turkey

Author:

Yetik Ali Kaan1ORCID,Candoğan Burak Nazmi2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi

2. BURSA ULUDAG UNIVERSITY

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of precipitation patterns is crucial for effective water management strategies, especially in regions vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the projected changes in annual and seasonal precipitation across the Southern Marmara Region of Turkey by comparing the averages of the reference period (1971-2000) with those of the future period (2061-2090). Employing multiple climate models (GFDL, HADGEM, and MPI) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the analysis includes Mann-Kendall trend tests and Sen's slope method to determine trends in precipitation patterns. Key findings reveal significant variability in precipitation projections among different models and scenarios, with implications for water resource management, agriculture, and ecosystem resilience in provinces such as Çanakkale, Balıkesir, Bursa, Bilecik, and Yalova. According to the annual rainfall change rates relative to the reference period, Balıkesir province stands out as the most resilient province against climate change with average rates of 8.81% and 7.09% under the HADGEM and MPI model simulations, respectively. Regarding seasonal variations, Bilecik province is expected to experience a significant decrease in rainfall, reaching up to -53.78% under the MPI RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of within-period changes in annual rainfall values, the strongest declining trend was identified with Z=-2.03 in Bilecik province under the MPI RCP8.5 scenario conditions by the Mann-Kendall test. On the other hand, for seasonal variations, Bursa province demonstrates the most robust decreasing trend under the GFDL RCP4.5 conditions (Z=-2.89). The study emphasizes the importance of considering spatially varying precipitation patterns and potential shifts in atmospheric circulation for sustainable water resource management amidst climate variability and change in the Southern Marmara region. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in developing adaptive strategies to address the challenges posed by future climate scenarios.

Publisher

Bursa Uludag University

Reference55 articles.

1. Adler, R. F., Gu, G., Sapiano, M., Wang, J. J. and Huffman, G. J. 2017. Global precipitation: Means, variations and trends during the satellite era (1979–2014). Surveys in Geophysics, 38: 679-699.

2. Agarwal, A., Babel, M. S. and Maskey, S. 2014. Analysis of future precipitation in the Koshi river basin, Nepal. Journal of Hydrology, 513(1): 422-434.

3. Akçakaya, A., Sümer, U. M., Demircan, M., Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Gürkan, H., Yazıcı, B., Kocatürk, A., Şensoy, S., Bölük, E., Arabacı, H., Açar, Y., Ekici, M., Yağan, S. ve Çukurçayır, F. 2015. Yeni Senaryolarla Türkiye İklim Projeksiyonları ve İklim Değişikliği. Ankara: Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü Yayını. Rapor No.: TR2015-CC.

4. Bağçaci, S. Ç., Yucel, I., Duzenli, E. and Yilmaz, M. T. 2021. Intercomparison of the expected change in the temperature and the precipitation retrieved from CMIP6 and CMIP5 climate projections: A Mediterranean hot spot case, Turkey. Atmospheric Research, 256: 105576.

5. Bağdatlı, M. C. and Can, E. 2019. Analysis of Precipitation Datas by Mann Kendall and Sperman's Rho Rank Correlation Statistical Approaches in Nevsehir Province of Turkey. Recent Research in Science and Technology Journal, 4(11): 24-31.

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3