Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions

Published:2022-08-15 Issue:2233 Volume:380 Page:
ISSN:1364-503X
Container-title:Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
language:en
Short-container-title:Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

Author:

Panovska-Griffiths J.¹²^ORCID,Swallow B.³,Hinch R.¹^ORCID,Cohen J.⁴,Rosenfeld K.⁴,Stuart R. M.⁵,Ferretti L.¹,Di Lauro F.¹,Wymant C.¹,Izzo A.⁴,Waites W.⁶⁷^ORCID,Viner R.⁸,Bonell C.⁶,Fraser C.¹,Klein D.⁴,Kerr C. C.⁴,

Affiliation:

1. The Big Data Institute and the Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

2. The Queen's College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

3. School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK

4. Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA

5. University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

6. Department of Public Health, Environments & Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

7. Department of Computer and Information Sciences, University of Strathclyde, G1 1XH Glasgow, UK

8. UCL Great Ormond St. Institute of Child Health, University College London, London, UK

Abstract

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50–80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65–90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’.

Funder

Department of Health and Social Care

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy,General Engineering,General Mathematics

Link

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2021.0315

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