Modelling the impact of birth control policies on China’s population and age: effects of delayed births and minimum birth age constraints

Abstract

We consider age-structured models with an imposed refractory period between births. These models can be used to formulate alternative population control strategies to China’s one-child policy. By allowing any number of births, but with an imposed delay between births, we show how the total population can be decreased and how a relatively older age distribution can be generated. This delay represents a more ‘continuous’ form of population management for which the strict one-child policy is a limiting case. Such a policy approach could be more easily accepted by society. Our analyses provide an initial framework for studying demographics and how social constraints influence population structure.