Forecasting drug overdose mortality by age in the United States at the national and county levels

Abstract

The drug overdose crisis in the United States continues to intensify. Fatalities have increased five-fold since 1999 reaching a record high of 108,000 deaths in 2021. The epidemic has unfolded through distinct waves of different drug types, uniquely impacting various age, gender, race and ethnic groups in specific geographical areas. One major challenge in designing effective interventions is the forecasting of age-specific overdose patterns at the local level so that prevention and preparedness can be effectively delivered. We develop a forecasting method that assimilates observational data obtained from the CDC WONDER database with an age-structured model of addiction and overdose mortality. We apply our method nationwide and to three select areas: Los Angeles County, Cook County and the five boroughs of New York City, providing forecasts of drug-overdose mortality and estimates of relevant epidemiological quantities, such as mortality and age-specific addiction rates.SignificanceThe drug overdose epidemic in the United States continues to escalate, with fatalities increasing five-fold since 1999 and reaching a record high of 108,000 individuals in 2021. The crisis is characterized by distinct waves of drug types, disproportionately affecting various demographic groups in specific geographical regions. One major challenge in designing effective interventions is to forecast age-specific overdose patterns to facilitate targeted prevention and preparedness efforts. To this end, we propose a forecasting approach that integrates observational data with an age-structured model of addiction and overdose mortality. Applying this method nationwide and in areas that are highly impacted by the overdose crisis, we provide robust drug-overdose mortality forecasts offering vital insights for effective interventions.