Individual risk-aversion responses tune epidemics to critical transmissibility ( R = 1)

Author:

Manrubia S.12ORCID,Zanette D. H.3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Systems Biology, National Centre for Biotechnology (CSIC), c/Darwin 3, Madrid 28049, Spain

2. Interdisciplinary Group of Complex Systems (GISC), Madrid, Spain

3. Centro Atómico Bariloche and Instituto Balseiro, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica and Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Av. Bustillo 9500, San Carlos de Bariloche, Pcia. de Río Negro 8400, Argentina

Abstract

Changes in human behaviour are a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Collective activity can be modified through imposed control measures, but spontaneous changes can also arise as a result of uncoordinated individual responses to the perceived risk of contagion. Here, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model implementing population responses driven by individual time-varying risk aversion. The model reveals an emergent mechanism for the generation of multiple infection waves of decreasing amplitude that progressively tune the effective reproduction number to its critical value R = 1. In successive waves, individuals with gradually lower risk propensity are infected. The overall mechanism shapes well-defined risk-aversion profiles over the whole population as the epidemic progresses. We conclude that uncoordinated changes in human behaviour can by themselves explain major qualitative and quantitative features of the epidemic process, like the emergence of multiple waves and the tendency to remain around R = 1 observed worldwide after the first few waves of COVID-19.

Funder

Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades

Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades-FEDER funds of the European Union

Publisher

The Royal Society

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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