Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa

Published:2014-11-21 Issue:6212 Volume:346 Page:991-995
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Pandey Abhishek¹,Atkins Katherine E.¹²,Medlock Jan³,Wenzel Natasha¹,Townsend Jeffrey P.⁴,Childs James E.⁵,Nyenswah Tolbert G.⁶,Ndeffo-Mbah Martial L.¹,Galvani Alison P.¹⁵

Affiliation:

1. Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.

2. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

3. Department of Biomedical Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA.

4. Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.

5. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.

6. Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Monrovia, Liberia.

Abstract

The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference42 articles.

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